As of the U.S. Drought Monitor's August 6, 2026 map, roughly 80% of Wyoming is rated in severe drought (D2) or worse, with 45% of the state in extreme drought (D3) — the driest conditions many ranchers have seen since 2002 — following the warmest July on record for the contiguous United States. The combination of an early, thin runoff and a record-hot summer has forced ranchers across Carbon, Niobrara and Crook counties into a set of decisions no one wants to make in August: cull cattle into a strong market, buy hay at prices approaching $300 a ton, or haul water and hope the winter delivers snow.
2026 Update — Rolling Developments
- Aug. 6, 2026: U.S. Drought Monitor shows roughly 80% of Wyoming in D2 (severe) drought or worse, with 45% of the state in D3 (extreme) drought.
- Early Aug. 2026: Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart tells the Legislature's Select Water Committee that some drainages are on pace to be the lowest on record, rivaling 2002.
- Aug. 2026: USDA's pasture and range condition index rates half of Wyoming as "very poor."
- Aug. 12, 2026: NOAA confirms July 2026 was the warmest July and the warmest month on record for the contiguous U.S. (76.9°F average, 5.1°F above normal). Wyoming posted its warmest July on record, 0.9°F above the previous record set in 2007.
- Note: Exact per-county herd-reduction figures for 2026 are not yet publicly tabulated by USDA NASS as of this writing — treat the rancher-reported culling decisions below as individual accounts, not a statewide count.
Wyoming Drought Snapshot, August 2026
| Indicator | Reading | Context/Source |
|---|---|---|
| Statewide D2+ (severe or worse) coverage | ~80% | U.S. Drought Monitor, Aug. 6, 2026 |
| Statewide D3+ (extreme) coverage | ~45% | U.S. Drought Monitor, Aug. 6, 2026 |
| USDA pasture/range condition rated "very poor" | ~50% of state | USDA NASS, Aug. 2026 |
| July 2026 avg. temp vs. normal (contiguous U.S.) | +5.1°F | NOAA, Aug. 12, 2026 |
| Hay price per ton (Carbon/Crook County ranchers) | approaching $300/ton | Rancher-reported, WyoFile, Aug. 12, 2026 |
Figures as reported by the sources listed. Hay price is a rancher-reported figure, not a surveyed statewide average.
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A Dry Winter Foretold Trouble
Jeb Steward, a board member of the Upper North Platte Water Users Association and a former Wyoming state legislator who ranches in Carbon County, told WyoFile that spring runoff peaked as early as March this year. Under Wyoming's first-in-time, first-in-right doctrine, irrigation restrictions arrived early behind that thin runoff, forcing ranchers to spend their limited legal water on hay pastures rather than grazing land — protecting winter feed at the cost of summer grass.
Steward said he knows of ranchers planning to move their remaining cattle to Nebraska cornstalk fields this fall simply to stay in business. Closer to home, he described a tributary feeding the Encampment River at Riverside as down to, in his words, "a piss-trickle."
High and Dry in Northeast Wyoming
Niobrara County rancher Jeb Hanson described conditions as "pretty serious." A recent heavy rain, he said, lasted five minutes before a dust storm kicked up in the same spot within the hour — moisture that arrives and leaves before the ground can hold it.
Hanson also noted that grass fires are moving slower this year, but not for an encouraging reason: "a lot of places don't have a lot of grass to burn anymore." Water wells are expensive to drill, and for the operations that can afford them they are the difference-maker in a year like this one.
The Herd-Size Gamble
Crook County rancher Thayne Gray, who runs the family's Warbonnet Ranch outside Moorcroft, is weighing whether to trim his herd while cattle prices are strong or hold onto as many cows as possible given the nationally low cattle herd — a dynamic PlaceAcre covered in its reporting on record-low U.S. cattle inventory.
Gray estimates the ranch will spend 30% more on hay this year, with prices approaching $300 per ton. "We're enjoying high prices right now, but high inputs are keeping us from just really raking in the dough," Gray said.
A Carbon County rancher summed up the trade-off ranchers statewide are making this summer: sell now while cattle prices are high, or hold the herd and gamble on next year's water.
The Official Picture
Wyoming State Engineer Brandon Gebhart told the Legislature's Select Water Committee that many small reservoirs are approaching or have already reached "deadpool" — the point at which no water can flow downstream — and that some irrigators had their water shut off after as few as 10 days of the season.
Gebhart also warned that if next year repeats 2026, water users on the North Platte River could face restrictions imposed by downstream Nebraska for the first time in decades. That would extend the consequences of this summer well beyond the ranchers already hauling water.
Why This Matters for Land Value
Drought-stressed grazing land can still transact, but buyers increasingly price in water reliability: parcels with decreed water rights, functioning wells, or river/creek frontage are commanding a premium over land dependent solely on seasonal runoff. Sellers of drought-affected ranchland should have their water rights documentation — permit numbers and priority dates — ready before listing.
What Happens Next
The Wyoming Legislature's Select Water Committee is continuing to review drought response and water-restriction contingencies through the fall 2026 interim session. If snowpack this winter repeats 2025-26's low totals, expect Nebraska to formally request North Platte River restrictions for the first time in decades — a development PlaceAcre will track.
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